More AI drug deals, the same thin slice of cash

Between January 1 and October 26, 2026, drugmakers announced 18 drug discovery deals with artificial intelligence (AI) companies that each carried a headline value of $1 billion or more. Over the same stretch of 2025 there were 11, and in 2024 there were 7. The count has grown every year and more than doubled since 2024.

The money tells a calmer story. Total headline value for those deals is about $28.8 billion this year, compared with $31.14 billion a year earlier. The disclosed upfront share was 4.1% in 2024, then 3.1% and 3.2%. In the deals that disclose one, buyers still put only a few cents per headline dollar into the initial package. My full deal lists link the company announcements behind those figures.

The headline is a ceiling

In these agreements, a drugmaker pays an AI company to find or design drug candidates, or to use its discovery platform. The buyer gets access to the work and rights to develop the resulting medicines. The list also includes smaller buyers and discovery of delivery technology, such as the lipids that carry a drug into cells.

The advertised value is mostly milestones. These payments depend on the work reaching agreed research, regulatory or sales goals. Money paid up front or soon after makes a more immediate commitment, although releases sometimes bundle it with equity or conditional early payments. I include those disclosed packages in the upfront share, so the figure is broader than cash already received.

In Lilly and Insilico’s March 29, 2026 agreement, Insilico’s filing put the headline at about $2.75 billion and the upfront payment at $115 million. That is about 4 cents per headline dollar, with the rest tied to development, regulatory and commercial milestones.

Lilly appears in four of this year’s 18 deals, with Nimbus, Insilico, Profluent and METiS TechBio. It appeared once in the 2024 list and twice in 2025. Lilly is choosing several partners, and each announcement separates an initial commitment from a larger promise of payment if the work succeeds.

I read the upfront line first because the upfront is a decision. The $115 million tells me something concrete about what Lilly is prepared to commit today. The $2.75 billion tells me how large the agreement could become. Neither figure tells me how many useful medicines it will produce.

XtalPi’s filing on its 2025 DoveTree agreement shows a wider gap. Against a headline of up to $5.99 billion, it disclosed $51 million upfront and another $49 million near term. Even that combined $100 million is under 2 cents per headline dollar.

Three years side by side

Every comparison below covers January 1 to October 26. B means billion dollars and M means million dollars. The upfront share divides the disclosed upfront and early payment packages by the headline value of those same deals.

Year	Deals and headline value	Disclosed upfront share
2024	7 deals, $9.45B	4.1%
2025	11 deals, $31.14B	3.1%
2026	18 deals, $28.8B	3.2%

In 2024, 6 deals disclosed packages totaling $332.5M against about $8.05B in headlines. In 2025, 7 disclosed $813M against $26.34B. This year, 12 disclosed $653M against $20.18B. I leave undisclosed upfronts out of both sides of the calculation. Treating them as zero would make the share look artificially small.

The full calendar years are larger. There were 8 included deals worth about $11.9B in 2024, with a 4.6% upfront share, and 14 worth about $37.8B in 2025, with a 3.1% share. The 2026 calendar year is still open.

More agreements, smaller average headlines

Four large agreements carry much of the 2025 total, and each is a separate deal with its own release. Valo’s release on its Novo Nordisk expansion gave a cumulative ceiling of about $4.6B. AstraZeneca’s release on its CSPC agreement gave about $5.33B. Monte Rosa’s release on its Novartis agreement gave up to $5.7B, and the XtalPi and DoveTree release gave up to $5.99B. The largest included agreement this year is Lilly and Insilico at about $2.75B.

My calculated average headline fell from about $2.8B in the 2025 window to $1.6B in 2026. That explains how the count can rise while the total falls. I read the growing count as more use of AI discovery partnerships, with buyers still keeping most of the advertised value conditional on future success. It gives me no basis for claiming that the science is succeeding more often.

Where the boundary changes the totals

AstraZeneca and CSPC’s January 2026 obesity agreement totals about $18.5B by CSPC’s figures, including $1.2B upfront. It covers eight programs and platform access, with no value assigned to the AI part. I leave it outside the count and totals. Adding the entire agreement would dominate the comparison without telling us how much of that value belongs to AI discovery.

Valo’s 2025 expansion raises a different issue. Its announcement gives a cumulative milestone ceiling of about $4.6B, up from $2.7B. The roughly $1.9B increase qualifies it for inclusion, but my headline total uses the announced cumulative ceiling. Counting only the increment would reduce the 2025 window total by $2.7B to $28.44B. On that basis, the two years are almost level. The choice changes the dollar comparison even though the deal count stays the same.

What I will watch next

Three included agreements arrived after October 26 in 2025, compared with one in 2024. The remaining weeks of 2026 can still change the calendar year comparison. I will watch whether more agreements arrive with a larger initial commitment, and whether older partnerships announce that milestones have actually been earned.

The disclosure sample needs watching too. This year’s 3.2% comes from 12 of 18 deals. A higher share next year could reflect larger initial commitments or a different mix of disclosed agreements. For now, I would read the next billion dollar announcement by asking how much the buyer commits early and what work that commitment funds.

How I counted

I applied inclusion rules written on October 26, 2026. A deal needs a company announcement or a stock exchange or securities filing, a stated headline of at least $1B, and company wording that makes AI, machine learning, generative design or computational design central to discovery. Access to a named AI or computational platform can qualify. Figures reported only by the press stay outside the count.

I count “up to” at the stated amount and “over” at the stated floor. Euro figures use the European Central Bank reference rate on the announcement date or closest prior business day. Pure equity financings and acquisitions are excluded. Expansions need at least $1B in new economics to qualify. An option agreement can count when the company states its headline value, but exercising an option inside an earlier agreement adds no new deal.

Payment conventions

The headline sums use different conventions across years. For 2024, I add upfronts to separately stated milestones where no total is given. The 2025 and 2026 sums use the announced headline amounts, which can be milestones alone. Adding the separately stated upfronts in 2025 would move its window total from $31.14B to $31.57B and its upfront share from 3.1% to 3.0%. These are announced ceilings with limits on comparability.

The upfront calculation includes equity and bundled early payments, including conditional amounts at their stated caps. For Sanofi and Earendil’s April 2025 agreement, the package is $125M up front plus $50M near term. The $50M sits inside the $1.72B milestone ceiling. It contributes to the upfront package without being added again to the headline.

For Zealand and Generate:Biomedicines, I include the $30M upfront and leave up to $35M in early preclinical milestones outside the upfront sum. Those payments remain in the milestone category for this calculation. The reference tables retain the payment breakdowns so readers can see such choices.

What the sources show

The linked sources show that companies announced the agreements and terms. They do not establish that milestones will be earned or that the stated upfront packages have all been received. My count may also miss deals. The exclusions below show where the public wording falls short of the inclusion rules.

Full deal lists

Company releases and filings state the terms below. Entries after October 26 contribute only to calendar year totals.

2024 deals

Date	Deal	Headline and upfront package
Jan 7	Eli Lilly and Isomorphic Labs	$45M upfront plus up to $1.7B milestones. Counted as $1.745B
Jan 7	Novartis and Isomorphic Labs	$37.5M upfront plus up to $1.2B milestones. Counted as $1.2375B
Apr 4	Merck KGaA and Caris Life Sciences	Up to $1.4B milestones. Upfront undisclosed
Apr 22	Boehringer Ingelheim and Ochre Bio	Could exceed $1B. Up to $35M upfront and near term
Sep 24	Novartis and Generate:Biomedicines	More than $1B. $65M upfront including $15M equity
Oct 7	AstraZeneca and CSPC, oral lipoprotein(a) drug	$2.02B. $100M upfront
Oct 24	Roche and Dyno Therapeutics	$50M upfront plus over $1B milestones. Counted as $1.05B
Nov 12, after window	Novartis and Schrödinger	$150M upfront plus up to about $2.3B milestones. Counted as $2.45B

Schrödinger qualifies through computational design. It falls after the comparison window.

2025 deals

Date	Deal	Headline and upfront package
Jan 8	Novo Nordisk and Valo Health, expansion	About $4.6B milestones. $190M bundled upfront, equity and potential near term payment
Apr 17	Sanofi and Earendil Labs	Up to $1.72B milestones, including $50M near term. $125M up front plus that $50M near term gives a $175M early package
Apr 29	Eli Lilly and Creyon Bio	Over $1B milestones. $13M cash and equity
May 21	Genentech (Roche) and Orionis Biosciences	Milestones could exceed $2B. $105M upfront
Jun 13	AstraZeneca and CSPC	$5.33B. $110M upfront
Jul 1	argenx and Unnatural Products	Up to about $1.5B milestones and option payments. Upfront not quantified
Aug 6	DoveTree and XtalPi	Up to $5.99B. $51M upfront plus $49M near term
Aug 14	Eli Lilly and Superluminal Medicines	Up to $1.3B. Upfront not split out
Aug 19	Halda Therapeutics and VantAI	Over $1B. Upfront not quantified
Sep 15	Novartis and Monte Rosa	Up to $5.7B. $120M upfront
Oct 14	Takeda and Nabla Bio	Success payments may exceed $1B. Upfront not quantified
Nov 3, after window	Roche and Manifold Bio	Over $2B milestones. $55M upfront
Nov 20, after window	Merck KGaA and Valo Health	Upfront and milestones up to over $3B. Upfront not split out
Dec 9, after window	Novartis and Relation Therapeutics	Up to $1.7B milestones. $55M bundled upfront, equity and research funding

2026 deals, January 1 to October 26

Date	Deal	Headline and upfront package
Jan 6	Eli Lilly and Nimbus Therapeutics	Up to about $1.3B. $55M upfront and near term
Jan 8	Servier and Iktos	Could exceed €1B, about $1.17B. Upfront not split out
Feb 9	Takeda and Iambic	Could exceed $1.7B. Upfront undisclosed
Feb 18	Novartis and Unnatural Products	Up to $1.7B milestones plus up to $100M upfront and early payments
Mar 29	Eli Lilly and Insilico Medicine	About $2.75B. $115M upfront
Apr 28	Eli Lilly and Profluent	Up to $2.25B milestones. Upfront not stated
May 20	Incyte and Genesis Molecular AI, expansion	Over $1B. $80M cash plus $40M equity
Jun 3	Alnylam and Inceptive	Up to $2B. $30M including equity
Jun 10	Novartis and Orionis, expansion	Up to $1.4B milestones. $40M upfront
Jun 22	SK Biopharmaceuticals and Insilico Medicine	Exceeds $2.5B. Up to $18M upfront and near term
Jun 30	Boulevard Bio and METiS TechBio	Up to $1.6B milestones. $20M upfront
Jul 2	AstraZeneca and CSPC, kidney therapy	About $1.77B. $30M upfront
Sep 17	Novo Nordisk and Orbis Medicines	Up to $1.4B including upfront. Upfront not split out
Sep 22	Boehringer Ingelheim and Envisagenics	More than $1B. Upfront not split out
Sep 24	Genentech and Earendil Labs	In excess of $1.5B. $55M upfront
Oct 13	Zealand Pharma and Generate:Biomedicines	Nearly $1.2B milestones. $30M upfront. Up to $35M early preclinical payments within milestones
Oct 15	AstraZeneca and insitro	Up to about $1.46B milestones. $40M upfront
Oct 19	Eli Lilly and METiS TechBio	Up to about $1.1B milestones. Upfront not quantified

The Lilly and METiS agreement covers AI discovery of delivery lipids. I include delivery technology under the discovery rule.

Borderline deals, with reasons

The linked company sources show these announcements. Each stays outside the count and totals for the reason given.

Date	Deal	Value and reason
May 13, 2024	AbbVie and Gilgamesh	$2.015B. The deal release has no AI wording. Machine learning appears in other company material.
May 23, 2024	Takeda and Degron	Up to $1.2B. AI appears only in the platform description.
Oct 15, 2024	Pfizer and Triana	Over $1.549B. AI appears only in the engine description.
Oct 28, 2024	Novartis and Monte Rosa	$2.25B. The release does not say AI produced or optimized the licensed asset. Outside the window.
Mar 3, 2025	Novo Nordisk and Gensaic	Up to $354M per target, with no number of targets stated.
Mar 21, 2025	AstraZeneca and Syneron	$75M plus up to $3.4B. The platform is called intelligent, with no AI or computational wording.
May 20, 2025	Blueprint and VantAI	Up to $1.67B. Expansion restates a cumulative total without separating new economics.
Oct 14, 2025	Bristol Myers Squibb and insitro	More than $2B cumulative value, with up to $20M new extension funding.
Dec 16, 2025	Genentech and Caris	Up to $1.1B milestones. AI appears only in the company description.
Jan 5, 2026	Sanofi and Earendil	Up to $2.56B, with up to $160M upfront and near term. AI describes the company without being tied to the deal work.
Jan 30, 2026	AstraZeneca and CSPC, obesity	About $18.5B, with $1.2B upfront. Eight programs plus platform access, with no value split for the AI part.
Apr 9, 2026	Roche and C4 Therapeutics	Over $1B milestones. AI appears only in the platform description.
Jun 24, 2026	Novartis and Antares	About $1.9B, with $105M upfront. Machine learning is one of four platform components. Its centrality is unclear.
Aug 4, 2026	Pathos AI and Alphamab	$125M upfront plus up to $2.093B milestones. The release says AI identified and prioritized the asset. It does not say AI designed it.

Sources

The company releases and filings linked in the 2024, 2025 and 2026 lists support every included agreement. The borderline list links the sources behind each exclusion. The additional XtalPi filing breaks down the DoveTree upfront payments.